Tuesday, November 10, 2009

A Future Retrospective

It is February 2011-think progressively. The native son Joe Mauer has won his 5th Batting title in 6 years. He is 2 years removed from a MVP season in 2009. The Twins just came of a season where they were defeated in the first round of the American League playoffs; again. In the press conference the conversation is always prefaced with disappointment, but cautious to not taint any hope for next season.

But lost in the common line of questioning is the lingering fear that Joe is no longer contractually obligated to the Minnesota Twins. These thoughts have been treated like the plague in local sports journalism. An optimistic confidence propped up on a gut full of pepto bismol.

At the conclusion of the 2010-2011 season Joe Mauer’s current contract will be complete. With limitless marketability and enough substance left in the sports frame to be considered ‘prime’; the teams vying for a bid will be few in number. And all will be located outside the mid-market. The only teams able to play in the negotiating game will be East Coast powerhouses New York, Boston, and Philadelphia. There might be some calls placed from the west – but he already has a home in Florida.

With a career batting average humming around .330; and a yearly increase to the power categories; his bat would be an upgrade for any line up. The line up most likely to make this investment will be Steinbrenner Inc.

Since 2000 the Yankees have consistently made the investment (splurge may be the more appropriate descriptor) for high profile players. Johnny Damon, Jason Giambi, A-Rod and CC Sabathia are only a few in the mental foot note. But, with this increased spending pattern, the team failed to achieve the pinnacle in the sport. Year after year, Yankee Stadium better resembled a modern day dust bowl than the house that Ruth built. And Monument Park had gained more layers of dust as opposed to confetti.

While the Twins take pride in growing farm talent to a market ready product; the Yankees like to forgo the development process and purchase proven entities. This is why Joe Mauer will likely end up in pin stripes.

Mid-market teams across all professional sports are facing increasing pressure to retain high profile players. The Mauer situation is complicated by the fact that he is a home grown commodity. But even the best grown product is intended to make it to the free market to let capitalism emerge the victor.

Front offices cannot invest a significant amount of capital in one asset and expect to good return come playoff time. And the teams that try find themselves usually on the off ramp come season's end. The Milwaukee Brewers acquired CC Sabathia last year to overcome a 26 year playoff drought. They pitched CC on 3 days rest for almost a month down the stretch and won the equivalent of the World Series for a mid market team; a playoff birth. But, when the season came to an end and the mid-market team could only offer a contract worth $100 million, Steinbrenner Inc. stepped in with a suitcase worth $161 million.

The twins have already seen high profile players move on to greener pastures. David Ortiz, Johan Santana and Torii Hun made the move to Boston, New York, and California respectively.

So, for a home town superstar with 3 Batting titles and a 2009 MVP award, a lot more then financial investment is at stake. Was the home town connection be enough incentive to stay? Are the perennial first round playoff appearances sufficient for a Hall of Fame career?

Or, should the Midwest 'nice' prevail? And should the fan base collectively congratulate Joe on his move to New York; wishing the money and the opportunity provide him with a chance at Baseball immortality…

Monday, October 19, 2009

The Scowling Giant

Atop the mound, the mulleted-giant bares down the 60 foot 6 inch runway the separates him from the Louisville lumber that sways in anticipation. With hawkish eyes and a freakishly large stature, Randy Johnson better resembles King Leonidas standing at the hot gates than other major league arms that take the mound night after night.

Standing at 6’ 10” the gangly southpaw has been scarring opposing batters with his overbearing stare, velocity, and unruly mullet since 1988. For 22 years Johnson has been the staple of intimidation in the big leagues. From his over powering prime heat to his stare that makes toddler’s cry, Johnson’s achievement of 300 career wins this past June should cement his Hall of Fame bust.

Therefore, in perspective of steroids wide spread impact and usage, is pitching the final frontier for baseball purity?

This decade has been dominated by the steroid scandals that have been connected to a plethora of superstars. From the media driven assault on Barry Bonds to the testosterone-saga of Manny Ramirez, baseballs batting records have been propped up on a base of sand. But unlike the leaning tower of Pisa, fans shouldn’t expect to see any restoration project to overhaul the record book foundations any time soon.

Only one name in the 300-win club; pitching’s equivalent to the 500 homerun club; is suspect in the PED conversation – Roger Clemens. Compare this point to the 7 names in the 500 homerun club that have been surfaced and it is easy to conclude that anabolic injections can be one logical explanation for the long-ball mania.

What has been lost in all the coverage and commentary is the art of pitching. This is not stating that steroids have not permeated into this position of the game, but rather that it is not as rampant. While some of the biggest home run hitters in recent memory have scandal surrounding them; pitching can take some solace in the fact that their records have remained relatively pure.

Johnson’s career spans an impressive 22 years; splitting his time equally between the American and National leagues. Career milestones include the following: 5 Cy Young Awards, 1 Championship, I playoff MVP (co-honors with teammate Curt Schilling), 4,875 strikeouts, 100 complete games, and 37 shutouts. Johnson struck out 300 plus batters in a season 6 times; all of them coming after he was 29 years old. He has thrown a no hitter and a perfect game. He was selected to the All Star Game 10 times and is the only pitcher in the games history to defeat all 30 teams.

While Johnson’s records are what the best resumes in Cooperstown posses, being able to remain relevant into your mid-40’s might be more of a statement. Sports are a game of youth. Bumps, bruises, aches, and all the other everyday injuries that plague professional athletics are better overcome when your body is young. Therefore, Johnson’s achievement at the age of 45 is even more impressive. His path to this point has been paved with surgeries, back problems, and fatigue but when the body falters the mind sharpens.

"I get more gratification out of that because of the way I'm doing it now than the way I did it 10 years ago,” Johnson stated after the game. For a player who relied so heavily on the overpowering approach to pitching, he has evolved to finesse and methodically working through line ups. He won more games from the age of 40-44 (66) then he did from age 25-29 (64). His most dominant stretch was from the age of 35-39 when we accumulated 88 wins. If Darwin was still roaming among us, I am confident that a lecture series entitled “Evolutionary trends and career longevity” would be attended by both academia and fandom.

Securing 300 was done on a forgettable night in Washington D.C. With rain providing the backdrop for the 23,000 or so fans in attendance Johnson threw 78 pitches – walking two and striking out 2 and only relinquishing one unearned run. He was the first pitcher since Tom Seaver in 1985 to win his 299th and 300th consecutively.

For a game that relishes its history, fans and players should appreciate this accomplishment as it does not look like it will be met by the current pitching forces in the game. This doesn’t assume that today’s pitchers cannot achieve significant milestones of yesterday; but rather that the youth of today will not be given the opportunity to pitch into their golden years. While it is likely that Johnson’s career arch is aggressively down-trending to the finish line – at least it is known that his pinnacle of performance was done the right way.

King Leonidas was able to withhold a massive Persian army for 3 days with only 300 men of his royal bodyguard and is remembered as arguably one of the greatest hero’s of European history. Randy Johnson has been keeping opposing forces at bay with a battalion of 8 and a tightly-wound ball of string for almost 22 years. Hopefully, his heroics on the field will be equally appreciated.

Monday, June 1, 2009

The Senator who became a Comedian

Sitting in the awkward purgatory between the November elections and the June 1st start date for oral arguments for Minnesota’s open Senate seat; Norm Coleman finds himself that much closer to becoming the comedian that he ran against in the 2008 election.

The 2008 Elections were historic in many regards. The key accomplishment, from the individual, nation’s, and historical perspective were encompassed when Senator Barack Obama became the first African American President in United States history. Adding to the significant milestone was the national democratic bulldozer that saw 19 Senate seats and 257 House seats respond to the 8 year Republican folly that became George W. Bush’s America.

And though the House majority changes parties more than ESPN NFL Analysts revise predictions, the 19 seat swing in the Senate was bittersweet. With the 19 seats, the Democrats obtained a 58-41 majority in the Senate and only 2 seats shy of the filibuster proof 60 seat majority that would help streamline President Elect Obama’s first 100 days in office.

While Obama was busy establishing his cabinet and working on his daughter’s school options, 1 election night drama was still playing out in the Midwest. At the close of the polls on November 4th, Senator Coleman, standing in front of his reelection party and team, was overly confident that his 215 vote lead would maintain his title and office in D.C. However, after a strenuous county by county, ballot by ballot, manual (hand) recount, the MN race tilted in favor of the Democratic challenger Al Franken with a 225 vote lead.

From the moment the recount was finalized, Coleman has been playing to every legal option at his disposal. Excluding the election re-count which would have been undertaken regardless; Minnesotans have had to endure a 3-judge panel trial where the recount and election ballot rejections were ridiculed and scrutinized. Whether the intention of an unclearly defined ballot selection can be accurately determined by a recount engineer to absentee ballot requirements; both Coleman and Franken legal teams entrenched themselves in their defense strategies.

For Franken, the 225 vote lead only needed to be maintained. Therefore, as long as the argument could be made that all un-counted absentee ballots should continue to be left out of the equation, or that the differing state counties followed legislative guidelines for counting votes were deemed appropriate and unbiased; then the election should be concluded with Franken as the winner.

For Coleman, the 225 difference largely focused on the 4,400 restricted ballots that he felt met state law for legal votes and therefore should be counted and added to the final tally for each candidate. If this were to occur, Coleman and his team feel that he would make up the 225 vote differential and therefore retain his Senate seat for another term. But, after the 3 panel court ruled, Franken saw his 225 vote count increase to 312. With the ruling, Coleman was forced to the brink of exhausting his last resource in Minnesota for a new election outcome.

The month of May saw legal documents and briefs submitted faster than text message votes for American Idol candidates. Coleman’s lawyers are hinting at taking the case to the Federal circuit; namely the Supreme Court; to insist that Coleman’s campaign efforts are granted via the 14th Amendments Equal Protection Clause. The Equal Protections Clause broadly defines that “No State shall…deny to any person within its jurisdiction the equal protection of the laws.”

Coleman’s legal brain trust is arguing that the lax of voting standards in all 87 counties in the State is hindering the true intention of the voter, therefore impacting the equal protection of the citizens voting rights. They are arguing that legally cast votes were illegal withheld based off the three panel’s ruling and that election night standards were impacted after the election was held. The assertion is that election judge compliance terms were not consistently maintained from election night to the panel trial. Leaving the argument that the withheld ballots should be reviewed using, essentially, a hybrid of all 87 counties ballot requirements allowances. But, this is problematic as the rules are changing after the election has been held. If voting standards are viewed as inconsistent across the state, it is the legislatures job to draft the resolution; not the courts.

While Coleman’s attorney’s have been busy trying to keep him in office, Coleman has been busy trying to figure out how to continue paying his mounting legal fees. In early May, paperwork was filed to allow the former Senator to use campaign contributions to fund his appeal. With the grey area of interpretation in Federal Campaign Finance Law, it appears that the allocation of campaign funds can be applied in this situation.

Section 439a. of Federal Campaign Finance Law concerns the use of Contributed amounts for certain purposes. Section 1 states that candidate can use donated funds for “authorized expenditures in connection with the campaign, and Section 2 states that contributions can be used “for ordinary and necessary expenses incurred with the duties of the individual as a holder of Federal Office”. It appears that based on Section 1; Coleman will be able to use campaign dollars for his continued election challenge. Because even though he is no longer technically a sitting Federal Office holder, he’s legal challenge is still going to fall under the “expenditures in connection with the campaign” law.

At any rate, Coleman’s efforts reek of the last moment desperation. He often half jokingly mentioned during that campaign that his candidate was nothing but a entertainer, and that he would not be the best state representative to ensure Minnesotans needs were met. However, Coleman, went so far during the campaign to repackage his appearance invoking the 80’s nickname of “Norm”. But, Minnesota is not made up of Sam’s or Diane’s. If there is one lesson that he has failed to learn in politics, it is the ability to bow out gracefully. Politics does not enjoy a sour loser. Even party alliances will shift and colleagues will stop returning your call if you fail to throw in the white towel at an appropriate time. It is at these moments that over-aggressiveness will lead to the inevitable comedic downward spiral.

Therefore, to salvage what is left Coleman will need to abandon his election challenge if the Minnesota Supreme Court finds that no Due Process or Equal Protection issues occurred. He can spend the next 5 or so years learning from this contest in order to make another run in 2012. And if his political image and confidence have been shaken, Coleman should take a cue from some of his challengers earlier work. After all, at least he still thinks that “He's Good Enough, Smart Enough, and Doggone It, People Like Me!”

Monday, May 11, 2009

Going Green in Oakland

On the heels of Earth Day and in the foreground of the natural resources debate, the ‘green’ movement seems to be seeping into corners of our public sectors that would not have instantly come to mind. While being a responsible global citizen and practicing the finer sides of home recycling; it appears that the movement has transcended community efforts and found a new home in America’s baseball parks.

More often than not, going green in baseball relates to payroll expenditure or new outfield turf. But, with payroll budgets cinching up in the face of crippling recessionary falloff, teams are looking to reap the benefits of recycling more than just last year’s unsold merchandise. For in an ongoing effort to remain competitive (i.e. profitable) most mid-market teams have to accomplish more for less. It is a constant opportunity for general managers to lure in big name talent at an affordable salary. In the past 5 years, most teams have opted for the new model of player and have heavily invested on the predicted greatness rather than statistical accomplishments to get in front of the inflationary curve. But, these are ultimately risk-reward situations with most players achieving mediocre career milestones or coaching the Durham Bulls.

In the last 5 years established talent has come at staggering mountains of owner’s liquidity. Alex Rodriguez restructures his quarter billion dollar (not a misprint) contract to $275 million and CC Sabathia worked his left-arm charm into the richest pitching contract in MLB history at $161 million. And while the pin stripes were busy stocking their supply shelf, the New York Metropolitans gave Johan Santana his own personal slice of the Big Apple for $137.5 million. But, what do the teams that are not located on Henry Hudson’s old stomping grounds do?

The answer is to recycle. Reach into the 2001 All Star gift bag and see if any players still panhandle for Triple A contracts. Seek out those players whose dominance is still respected though not feared. This has not only given aging veteran’s a much needed second wind, but has given smaller market teams a real opportunity to increase revenues across the board. Bringing in a Ken Griffey Jr. or a Randy Johnson will give your team a better chance to win on the field; but more pointedly it will drive ticket sales, concessions, and merchandise; all key contributors to signing next year’s free agent star.

Over the past decade no other team has better demonstrated the ability to bring in veteran players than the Oakland A’s. Headed by general manager Billy Beane, the A’s have made it a point to bring in other teams waste and turn it into key statistical contributions. Consider the following list: Jason GIambi, Frank Thomas, Mike Piazza, and Nomar Garciparra. Between this quartet, there are 24 All Stars Games, 8,138 hits, 1,574 home runs, and 5,258 RBI’s. Or, for those who like their information consolidated, just think of it as what Willie Mays would have accomplished had he been allowed 3 careers back to back to back.

Now, in all fairness the offensive production and glory days of these 4 individuals were not achieved on the floor of the coliseum. But, bringing in the instant recognition of established players will drive the aforementioned revenue streams. According to Forbes, the Athletics were ranked 27th in Team Value at $234 million in 2006. But, by making venue adjustments and fine-tuning player evaluations made known in the book Moneyball, the A’s team value was up to $323 million in 2008; a 72% increase. This was done is spite of the fact that of the 147 luxury suites in the stadium, 90 are located in the outfield and all Ad signage has to be shared jointly between the A’s, the Raiders, and the Coliseum owners.

More so, the Athletics front office took small hits to a tightly managed payroll by bringing these players to Oakland. In 2006, the A’s only guaranteed Thomas $500,000 plus incentives. When Thomas easily out-performed his contractual obligations in Oakland, winning Comeback Player of the Year, the A’s allowed Thomas to accept a 2-year $18 million contract with the Toronto. To fill the newly created void, the A’s brought in veteran Mike Piazza for a 1-year $8.5 million dollar contract. In 2009, the A’s allowed the pendulum to swing back home as the new free agent Jason Giambi was looking for a new home after a 6 year daze in New York. To help spur offensive output, the A’s also invested in Nomar Garciapara, Orlando Cabrera, and Matt Holiday. And though they have the official Major League Baseball insignia of “This Product is made from 100% recycled Baseball Player;” it has yet to vault the A’s out of the cellar of the American League West.

Ultimately, success is what generates the revenue that allows general managers and personal executives to put a competitive product on the field from April to October. And though we are confronted with being more ‘green’ conscious on a daily basis, it still hasn’t proven to be a key ingredient in post season success. But, there is the one intangible that cannot be quantified on a balance sheet. It is the feeling of watching an aging star swing the bat with the authority of confidence. Though they may not produce the fanfare of yesterday, or put up the numbers that sold countless jersey’s, most veterans are still going to collect more money for any agent than a stadium full of empty cans would for you at your local recycling outlet.

Sunday, March 29, 2009

The Aftermath of Evolution

In the Laymen’s Darwinian argument, evolution comes down to a key point; survival of the fittest through natural selection. As in those beings or creatures who inherit favorable genes through species reproduction will become the dominant force in the given societal/cultural setting.

Evolution in the context of music can have many different explanations. Whether styles progress, an artist or groups creative output no longer resembles earlier works, or the image and subjects, better the presentation, brings a new offering to the public arena.

In the past 20 years no other figure has better demonstrated the evolution of music then Dr. Dre. Dre broke through the racial barrier as a key figure in the group N.W.A. From Straight Outta Compton to “Fuck Tha Police”, their time and social reflection became a platform for a community and more importantly a race. It was the angst of a neighborhood, the voice for urbanite minority youth, and a powerful assault on suburban comfort.

But, trying to follow the growth from N.W.A., to The Chronic, to 2001 is more than remembering where this music provided life’s soundtrack moments. Having these albums readily available to play in succession, allows a story to unfold that the novice listener is ill-prepared to confront. Therefore, are these three bodies of works enough to speak to the Darwinian Theory in music?

From beat execution to lyrical composition, the transformation of Dre’s work opens the door to the evolutionary debate. With raw talent and the ability to communicate the self descried “reality-rap”, the public was exposed to the undercurrent of race relations in America. And while anger and aggression are hard to maintain over the course of time, trying to remain relevant is even a bigger challenge. Straight Outta Compton was a real world event before MTV ever put the concept in television format. It was an uncensored, aggression filled 4 minute public service announcement. It wasn’t about wanting to be rich or capitalizing on the game; it was their ghetto bar mitzvah. Gangsta Rap had arrived.

The hardcore stance was instant karma for LA urbanites. N.W.A. would create careers for 3 key figures in the movement; Dr Dre, Eazy E, and Ice Cube. Inner tension resulted in Dre’s exit from N.W.A. at its most successful point, but hip hop’s inertia was propelling Dre to be the main act on newly launched Death Row Records.

Though most loyal fans probably anticipated the Dre of N.W.A, it was the departure from aggression to funk; more pointedly, g funk. Whether it was self realization or natural progression, the hard core lyrical repertoire dissolved into a new beginning. “One, two, three and to the fo’…” became conversational introductions. The Chronic was a superb explanation. The Chronic emerged from the rubble that was LA after the King Riots as a statement of what it is and how it is. Where N.W.A focused on the exposing racial strife, the Chronic was an embracement of reality. The reality that Dre exposed to main stream became the standard.

“It’s like this, and like that, and like this” wasn’t acceptance so much as clarity. The Chronic’s impact on society wasn’t seen so much of what it did for the urban scene as for what it did to suburbia. Names like Snoop Dogg and Warren G become household names on the strength of Dr. Dre. The appreciation of the music evolved from one groups protests to increased subwoofer sales at your local supply outlet. The Chronic was an equal match to Dre’s work with N.W.A as both albums sold in excess of 3 million copies.

The evolution from hardcore to gangsta rap was just the beginning. Though Dre did release one album between the Chronic and 2001, consider this the lone speed bump on the autobahn of his career. In 1998, after signing an unknown Detroit area rapper Marshall Mathers to his label, 2001 became the next endeavor taken on by Dr. Dre.

2001 launched in 1999 and was instantly accepted as the return of Dr Dre. If any doubts surfaced about the Dre’s ability to produce and execute in the studio in the years between The Chronic and 2001, they were drowned out by the beats of “Forgot About Dre”. Not hesitating to call in any and all favors, Dre was quick to bring in Snoop Dogg, Xzibit, Nate Dogg and Eminem into the fold. With “Still D.R.E”, “The Next Episode”, and “Xxplosive” Dre ran the mediocre contenders off the air waves.

Though the album’s strength has been attributed to the ghostwriting talents of Royce Da 5’9” and Eminem, Dre’s signature influence was reverberated throughout the 21 track ride. And while the beats were upgraded and the sound crisper, in most cases the message is the same. In “Still D.R.E” atop the lyrical soap box the confidence is defined: “Dr. Dre be the name still running the game.” In the first 5 years of the 21st century, Dre was the Darwinian force aiding the radio’s natural selection. Artist like Eve, Eminem, and 50 cent were fortunate to work with the Dr., while the others found their CD cases washing up on the shores of the Galapagos Islands.

With Dre’s self reported finale coming out later in 2009, Detox is going to be “The New Hope” for rap moving forward. Dre has reported that the content will be matured from his blunt-beats to a rapsical; with the first undertaking of a rap musical. Dre’s focus will be on a single individual’s journey, with guest appearances filling supporting roles to the central theme. Instead of being a Hot 100 singles generator, it will be the ideal studio setting for music’s science lab. And if this is his exit strategy from the game, I am sure that a lot of the album will be self-reflective and a sincere appreciation of his own evolution.

In the end, can the growth in Dr. Dre’s offerings be attributed to his natural intuition into where the music should go? Or was he ahead of the curve in capitalizing on the market that would be the necessary cash flow to sustain his career? Either way, his ability to sustain his career and relevancy has made him the benchmark and picture insert that should have been sketched by Darwin.

Thursday, February 19, 2009

The Curious Case of Barry Rodriguez

Well, for the few remaining baseball purists in sport fandom, the foundation has just been demolished by another Performance Enhancing Drug quake. This time the messianic hope embodied by Alex Rodriguez and his pure talent have been revealed to be nothing more than a shroud for Cooperstown.

Earlier this month, Rodriguez’s name was revealed as one of 104 positive tests that were conducted in 2003 to deter the rising popularity of Performance Enhancing Drugs (PED’s). The testing was initiated earlier in the decade after a 16 year veteran catapulted 73 homeruns out of baseball parks across the nation. And though everyone held reservations about the products shipping from Wall-bonds manufacturing, it was Alex who was supposed to be the history books defender.

The 2001 performance of 73 homeruns was the equivalent of the final splat of pine tar on George Brett’s bat. Bond’s achievement came only 4 years after McGwire traded shots with Sammy Sosa in Baseball’s resurgent 1998 season. 1998 saw McGwire’s courtship of 61* get stadium seats full and turn style repairmen some overtime. The efforts of both men were nothing short of heroic. As baseball had struggled to gain market share after the 1994 strike, long ball-mania was one way to generate interest in the game. Their summer campaign became instant karma for Selig and company.

In one season baseball found its market share returning. Live game feeds interrupted all programming content to show the next shot heard around the world live and in primetime. But while the rest of the league was engrossed in the summer race, number 25 out in San Francisco was watching his 37 homeruns fail to be a featured segment on SportsCenter. And though Bonds would finish 1998 with a .303 average and a .609 slugging percentage, it was only good enough to land the snowman rank in MVP voting.

Up in Seattle during the 1998 season Rodriguez was in his 5th season in the league and in the midst of his most productive to date. 1998 saw A-Rod hit 42 homeruns will maintaining a .310 batting average and a .560 slugging percentage; numbers that landed him 9th in the MVP voting. He also entered into the exclusive 40-40 club as he swept 46 bases as well. Though this is the only time Rodriguez reached the 40-40 club, it was done in 6 fewer seasons than Bonds, who didn’t achieve it until year 11.

In retrospect, 1998 seems to be the calm before the proverbial storm. Over the next 5 years everything got bigger; the players, the home runs, the attendance and the Yankee’s payroll expenses. Coincidentally, the one are of the game that never did undergo enhancements was the oversight. Baseball was able to remain negligent as long as the public was over stimulated on the results rather than the means. But, the assault and brevity of the next 5 years would leave pieces of corked history debris falling to this day.

Back to 2001. While Bond’s 73 souvenirs and the shredded frame that it was done on left sport writers in awe from preseason on; A-Rod’s was busy impersonating Dr. Evil demanding ransom money that would have made Enron double check their accounts payable records. For Barry, 2001 saw his performance even leave Chris Berman breathless from all the “Back, Back, Back, GONE!” calls. Bonds numbers were one for the ages: 73 homeruns, 137 RBI’s, 177 BB’s, .328 Batting, .863 slugging and his 4th MVP award.

While everyone with a kayak was busy getting to the Bay Area, A-Rod was showing that he was worth the GDP of Micronesia. In his first year of the new contract, Rodriguez established himself with the Texas fan base through hitting .318 with 52 homeruns and 135 RBI’s and a .622 slugging percentage. Though these numbers would contend for MVP honors in any other season, the achievements of Bonds clearly dwarfed the rest of the league.

But, as Baseball started to get more public and government pressure to clean up the game, the feats of yesterday were instantly made suspect. The respect that Bonds garnished during the 2001-2002 seasons disappeared faster than Keyser Söze. And while former players, most notably Jose Canseco, wrote accusatory books to remove the invisibility cloak covering some of baseballs’ best, most of the ‘big name’ players seemed to have escaped. Of course there was the Congressional hearing where Palmeiro feverishly denied use, Big Mac’s sole rebuke of “I’m not here to discuss the past”, and Sammy Sosa’s new found need for a translator; but this all seemed spectacle.

Bond’s has since been removed from the sport. No team will touch him even though the aging veteran could probably still produce a few compact swings in the clutch for a contender. Selig's performance as the incompetent Commissioner should have been Oscar nominated material. And while this has all been unfolding, Rodriguez’s biggest plunders came in the personal realm. Yes, he is Mr. April and Mrs. October, but people just concluded it was the pressure and the not the fall out.

The most disheartening element of A-Rod’s confession is that there is the air of dishonesty. He never comes flat out with an apology; rather he articulates to the best of his ability an elongated excuse. His focus of use stays within the 3 year window that he played for the Rangers. The use of steroids was attributed to 2 key factors; pressure of a large contract and being young and naïve. Now, pressure is one thing, but playing in Texas isn’t exactly New York. Texas has zero world championships, zero AL Pennants, and only 3 Division Titles; none of which occurred while A-Rod was on the roster.

As far as the young and naïve argument is concerned; I am sure that if any other 25-27 year old who used an illegal substance and was caught would have the odds of the Rangers to “win it all in 2009”to beat the rap in a court of law. Furthermore, 3 teammates of young Alex’s on the Rangers in 2001 were Ivan Rodriguez, Rafael Palmeiro, and Ken Caminiti. Two of the three are known steroid users. This does not mean guilt by association, but it does create the ideal setting. A-Rod might claim youthful ignorance, but then again, the first rule of fight club is that there is no steroids...I mean fight club.

Eventually, the 104 player list of positive test results will be released. Of these, A-Rod’s name will certainly be the biggest. After all, he was the chosen one. As Bonds continued to creep towards Aaron’s 755 mark, the general discourse was that even if he becomes the home run king, he will eventually be overtaken by the pure. But, with that hope evaporating faster than GM’s cash reserves, the Commissioner’s office are considering some revisionist’s history. Unfortunately, you cannot erase what has been done.

The era will have to be remembered with a mental asterisk as opposed to one penciled in. Even if it is easier to pin up the bigger stars, surely the use of PED’s was wide scale enough that they benefited players of all caliber. Moving forward, an understanding will need to be reached that the eras statistical plateau's where reached on the backs of roided out Sherpa’s.

Friday, February 6, 2009

Lombardi’s Sons

Defining success in the NFL should be a relatively easy thing to do. According to the analysts, writers, and the talking heads, it comes down to one thing: Rings…as in Super Bowl wins. Therefore, if every teams goal is to win a championship; then success, legacy, and Canton Ballots should be summarized in 2 lines:

1. Name: ____________________________
2. Championships:______________________

Every year as the regular season dust settles and playoff performances lift or crush entire cities and fan-bases spirits, commentators are busy saturating our collective consciousnesses with stats, records, and historical precedent. The expert opinion on what team will dawn the cap and tee shirt with the printed “Champions” can only be validated before Kickoff.

Therefore, are Super Bowl victories the appropriate measure of success for a players’ career? And more pointedly, are championships the appropriate measure of a quarterback’s success and all time ranking in the NFL record books? Who are Lombardi’s favorite sons?

Over the two week media blitz prior to Super Bowl XLIII, hours of conversation and air time were dedicated to the topic of Steelers starting quarterback Ben Roethlisberger place amongst the best should he win his second championship. He was mentioned among current greats Tom Brady and Peyton Manning, in addition to being put up for comparison to other 2-time winners such as John Elway and Roger Staubach.

If Championships are the foundation for the greatness debate, then it is imperative to look at multi-championship quarterbacks. First, it is critical to eliminate the near-sightedness of fandom since modern memory runs as deep as Katrina’s relief budget. With that, the following players are immediately removed from the discourse: Peyton Manning, Eli Manning, Brett Favre, and Kurt Warner. Though these players have impressive resumes, their individual Championship total tallies 1. Favre has played in more consecutive games than any QB in history and Peyton Manning will likely surpass many of Favre/Marino’s passing records before he steps away from the game, but individual accolades are not relevant for this conversation.

Therefore the only modern rival for Steeler Nation’s number 7 is New England’s number 12.

Tom Brady is my generation’s Joe Montana. At 31 years old, Brady had achieved the summit 3 times in his career. He has built a fan base of football enthusiast through his skill in the pocket and composure under pressure. For anyone with the final Patriots drive in 2001 fresh in their minds, it is hard to forget Brady’s simple dribble of the football before giving the ball to the referee prior to Vinatieri’s winning kick as time expired. It was about a cool as the other side of the pillow. Not only was Brady about to achieve his first Championship, he was about to officially void the St. Louis’s Rams contender status. After the Rams lost Super Bowl XXXVI they never rebounded as Kurt Warner forgot how to grip a football, Marshall Faulk’s worn frame finally gave in, and Coach Vermeil moved back home to Napa to tend his winery. Though Brady’s performance was not great, his 16/27 passing for 145 and 1 TD were good enough to give him MVP honors, and more importantly the victory.

Brady has gone onto win 2 more Lombardi trophies before losing an epic game in Super Bowl XLII to the New York Giants. Brady’s Super Bowl stats are as follows: 100/156 passing (64.1% completion), 1,001 yards, and 8/1 touchdown to interceptions. He would win MVP in 2 contests while amassing a 3-1 overall record. Now, compare these stats to Joe Montana’s 4 Super Bowl performance where he achieved a 127.8 QB rating. Montana completed 83/122 passes for 1,142 yards and 11 touchdowns. He also ran for 2 touchdowns while never throwing an interception. Montana was also named the games’ MVP 3 times going 4-0 in Super Bowl games. Though Brady never amassed these accomplishments, there is no, nor has there ever been a modern equivalent. No offense to Rice-A-Roni, but Montana is probably San Francisco’s favorite treat.

Even though Steeler Nation has nothing but R-E-S-P-E-C-T for Roethlisberger, his performance is nowhere near Montana’s or Brady’s caliber. In 2 Super Bowls, Big Ben has completed 30/51 for 379 yards with a 62% completion rate. But, he has only thrown 1 touchdown in contrasts to 3 interceptions. As previously mentioned, Roethlisberger had a lowly 22.6 QB rating in his first Super Bowl, but he bested that by 70.6 points when he achieved a 93.2 rating in the final contest of the 2008 season. But despite his lack in offensive production, he has walked away a two-time champion. And if the Super Bowl is the career defining moment for all players, especially quarterback’s, then Roethlisberger has to be elevated in the conversation of greatness. When the Steelers won Super Bowl XL, Roethlisberger was 23 years old, surpassing Brady as the youngest quarterback to win a championship. Though his youthfulness is just one piece of the puzzle, his winning style has been firmly established in his 5 seasons under center.

As a starter, Roethlisberger has achieved a 51-20 regular season record, leading the Steelers to a 23-4 record against the Division; a Division that includes the Baltimore Ravens whom he is 6-2 against. Against the AFC power-houses (Patriots, Colts, Jaguars, and Titans) he is 5-7; the apparent Achilles heel being the Indianapolis Colts who he has not beaten in the regular season. However, he does own a 1-0 record against the Colts in the playoffs. Though the point of this debate is how championships elevate a quarterback in the all time hierarchy, Roethlisberger’s regular season dominance shows that his 2 titles are not a fluke. He has already won two by the age of 26. In comparison, Montana was 26 when he won his first championship.

Looking at the validity of statistical analysis vs. number of championships, it is again vital to move back to “what is the reason the game is played”? Football, in its purest sense, is a team sport. And the point for training year-round, enduring mini-camp, training camp, the preseason, the season, and for those lucky 16 teams- the playoffs; it is about winning championships. And if the argument can been founded on that rationale, then the inclusion of players with average statistical accomplishments are in much better standing should they return home to a parade in their honor.

The best example of statistical dominance is Dan Marino, the bench mark for quarterbacking in the NFL. Until the 2006 and 2007 season’s, Marion held most of the top statistical NFL records: most TD (420), most yards (61,361), most passing yards in one season (5,084), and most 300-yard passing games at a mind boggling 63. But despite all his career success, the one column that Marino never notched was a Super Bowl win. For argument’s sake, Roethlisberger has probably enjoyed a better supporting cast. But, Marino failed to win in his only trip despite throwing over 300 yards.

Therefore, the following will outline my top 10 all-time QB’s because of their success at the highest level:

1. Bart Starr (5) 3 Championships/2 Super Bowls
2. Joe Montana (4-0)
3. Terry Bradshaw (4-0)
4. Troy Aikman (3-0)
5. Tom Brady (3-1)
6. Ben Roethlisberger (2-0)
7. Bob Griese (2-0)
8. Jim Plunkett (2-0)
9. Roger Staubach (2-2)
10. John Elway (2-3)

In the end, a statistically dominated career can compensate for a lack of championships on the career resume. But, for most players, winning a championship is the holy grail of the sport, or more secular, it will validate a career (Warner), cement a legacy (P. Manning), or get the proverbial monkey off one’s back (Young). But, If we can allow the QB debate to be held in the Super Bowl forum, then determining the rankings should be that much easier. NFL fandom stretches multiple generations, across teams both young and old. And while individual pride might not agree with where their quarterback’s ranked, everyone should be able to show a little respect for the accomplishments of those on top. After all, even the players on the losing side of a Sunday afternoon meeting still find a moment congratulate the victors.

Though Roethlisberger has a lot left to prove to the non-believers, what he has done in his 5 short years will give him a great cover letter to his canton application. And while Vince Lombardi would have difficult comprehending a 6’5” 250lb. quarterback, I am sure he would find a roster spot for him come training camp.

Sunday, January 18, 2009

"Against The Tide"

No one likes the unhappy ending. It’s a downer; it creates discontent and bad word-of-mouth advertising for movie studios. To avoid the pitfalls of disappointment, Hollywood goes to incredible lengths to ensure that movie-goers of all ages do not leave the theater with the proverbial bad taste fresh in their mouths. Therefore, they create uplifting, inspirational content that increase audiences enjoyment and attachment to the film. This not only ensures that audiences will speak more highly of the film; it will also foster better DVD sales on the other end of the revenue stream.

There are few better settings for the classic underdog story than in Sports. They are arguably one of the best backdrops for inspiration. It is dyed in the fabric of competition. It is found in Coach Vermeil’s office when Papale makes the roster, when Jimmy Morris unloads his first fast ball for the Tampa Bay Rays, when Rudy steps onto the field at Notre Dame, and even when golf caddy Danny Noonan sinks the winning putt to overcome Judge Smails and Dr. Beeper at Bushwoods. From legendary films as Bull Durham through modern spectacles Any Given Sunday, overcoming all odds, believing in yourself, become the duplicated mantra that has accounted for sport commentary clichés for years.

This past season the NFL laid the foundation of hope for a new script of comebackers. The Miami Dolphins were previously an assumed “W” on the season schedule. However this underachieving team has evolved into a playoff contender. Not only has the team turned it around, they nearly stole Cinderella’s cleat in one offseason.

After finishing the 2007 season with a dismal 1-15 record the Dolphins solicited the best NFL construction foreman in Bill Parcells to demo the old team and rebuild the foundation. He released the current GM and Head Coach. He brought in a new head coach in Tony Sparano who assisted him in Dallas. Long time veterans Zach Thomas and Jason Taylor were dispersed and Rookies played on opening day. Parcells, wanting to establish a new QBPA (Quarterback Protection Agency) drafted a 6’7” Tackle with the number 1 overall pick in the 2008 Draft to produce both in the running game and to pay lower blindside insurance premiums. Finally, he brought in the 2006 comeback player of the year in Chad Pennington who became unemployed when the Jets sought a similar move when they brought in the aging gun-slinger Brett Favre.

Therefore, the classic three parts of a story include the set up, the confrontation and the resolution. Or better, where we were, where we got to, and what we learned...

The Set Up

The Miami Dolphins are arguably one of the most renowned Franchises in NFL History. They own the only perfect season, achieving a 17-0 record for the 1972 season. They have hoisted the Lombardi trophy twice, sent 9 players/coaches to the Hall of Fame and have provided SportsCenter with a never-ending list of guests to mock undefeated teams that have a realistic shot at becoming the second undefeated team in history.

Though they have the legendary achievements in the past, it has been a slow climb in the new millennium. Over the past 5 years the Dolphins have amassed a 30-50 Record under 4 different head coaches. The most notable season came in 2003 when they went 10-6 and finished in second place in the AFC East. After a slumping 4-12 mark in 2004, the team fired head coach Dave Wannstedt and brought in LSU’s Nick Saban who was one year removed from a BCS championship. Though the team started out strongly, they stumbled through mid season and rebounded in time to finish the 2005 season with a 9-7 record. While Saban could never galvanize or create a winning strategy to maintain at the professional level, the college itch returned. After the 2006 season, Saban exited stage left and stepped out of Shula’s shadow and into Bear Bryant’s’ when he assumed the head coaching job at Alabama.

2007 was a year that hopefully most Dolphin fans experienced amnesia as the team hit a league low 1-15 mark. The sole win held out until week 13 when the fins defeated Baltimore. It was the first and only win for Head Coach Cam Cameron who was charged with the ultimate job of replacing moral and continuity for a Franchise in disarray. Though Cameron became the sacrificial lamb, his departure marked just the beginning in a tidal wave of changes on the horizon.

The Confrontation

In December 2007, Dolphins owner Wayne Huizenga hired Parcells to be the executive vice president of football operations. Since Parcells has shown particular durability in returning teams to previous glory it was the perfect setting for the ‘Big Tuna’. Soon after getting his new office in order, Parcells relieved a sluggish GM and unproven head coach. Parcells then moved in on his former mentee in Dallas, Tony Sparano. After further personnel consideration, Veterans Trent Green, Marty Booker, and future Dolphin Ring of Honor member Zach Thomas were given their pink slips.

From the outside, it is assumed that when these many changes occur in the same offseason, the organization is in the ‘rebuilding’ phase. This ensures that even though the fan base and local media will be brutal about the season progress, major sport networks will chalk it up to reconstruction and continue to insert the next year defense into any real assessment. But demolition and the quick build is the Parcells trademark. For a league where experience matters, Parcells has proven himself to be the master. He is the only coach in NFL history to lead 4 different clubs to the post season.

Confidence was in the air during the transition from the preseason to the regular season as the Dolphins went 3-1 in August. But waking up in week 3, the dolphins found themselves winless. After losses to the Jets and Cardinals, the New England Patriots were also anxious to bring in an underperforming team. But, as in all great turnaround stories, week 3 showed the system and personnel firing on all cylinders with an impressive 38-13 win moving into the Bye week. Week 5 showed a sustained momentum as the Dolphins defeated the Chargers at home.

This would typically be the time when the story would fade away and we would wake up in the playoffs. But, for Dolphins, swimming against the tide is not that easy. They would need to loose 2 consecutive weeks to find their record at an underachieving 2-4. Week 8 marked the half way point of the season, and no doubt some words of encouragement were given from Parcells to Sparano to help rejuvenate the team. Whatever actions or scripted speeches were given; it worked. The Dolphins proceeded to lose only one more contest to the Patriots, setting up a potential playoff berth by winning in week 17 in New York over Division rival Jets.

The Resolution

On the final Sunday of the Season the Miami Dolphins flew north to compete for the Divisional crown of the AFC East. A little over four months before the Jets had released Miami QB Chad Pennington to make room for Big Apple new comer Brett Favre. Though Favre’s bust has already been created for Canton, his uncommitted attitude was his ticket out of Green Bay. During the 2007 playoffs, it was the Favre and the Packers who were competing in the NFC championship. In 2008 it was the Jets trying to hold onto the Division.

The Dolphins came in on a 5-game winning streak, while the Jets were losers of 3 of 4. Though the dolphins always held the scoring edge in the game, the background to the story is much more interesting. For the Jets, they saw their 18 year veteran throw for one touchdown, yet gave back 3 interceptions. This in comparison to the old goods that threw for two scores and zero interceptions.

And while turnovers are costly in any game, in the playoffs they are magnified due to the stage. Favre was brought in to produce. On the season, Favre provided 22 touchdowns to 22 interceptions for 3,472 yards with an 81.0 QB rating. Though this was good enough to lead the Jets to a 9-7 record, it was not better than the man he took the job from. After being released by the Jets, Pennington remembered the mindset he had for the 2006 season when his efforts were rewarded with the NFL Comeback Player of the year. Statistically, Pennington had the much better season throwing 19 touchdowns to 7 interceptions. He amassed 3, 653 yards with a 97.4 QB rating. He was the first Dolphin QB since Dan Marino to throw for over 3,500 yards en route to his second Comeback Player Award.

When time expired at the Meadowlands, it was Pennington and the Dolphins who enjoyed a 24-17 edge over the home team. For Pennington, it had to be especially sweet that the Divisional Title game was won over his former team. Vindication had to be a sweet emotion of the day. Furthermore, Pennington now has a conversation starter with Payton Manning for being the only quarterbacks to provide a team with a 10 game turnaround.

The Dolphins lost their Wild Card Playoff match to the Baltimore Ravens, effectively bringing their season to an end. And though the clock rang midnight for the Dolphins, their 11-5 record is a classic example of a “worst to first” story. Though I do not expect to see “Against the Tide” being released anytime soon with DeNiro playing Parcells and James Gandolfini as Tony Sparano; it is a story that most sports fans enjoyed. And for the Detroit Lions and their fan base, I am sure that they are already looking at filming “Lion Pride” in the fall of 2009 as a sequel to the 2008 Dolphins.