A Future Retrospective

It is February 2011-think progressively. The native son Joe Mauer has won his 5th Batting title in 6 years. He is 2 years removed from a MVP season in 2009. The Twins just came of a season where they were defeated in the first round of the American League playoffs; again. In the press conference the conversation is always prefaced with disappointment, but cautious to not taint any hope for next season.

But lost in the common line of questioning is the lingering fear that Joe is no longer contractually obligated to the Minnesota Twins. These thoughts have been treated like the plague in local sports journalism. An optimistic confidence propped up on a gut full of pepto bismol.

At the conclusion of the 2010-2011 season Joe Mauer’s current contract will be complete. With limitless marketability and enough substance left in the sports frame to be considered ‘prime’; the teams vying for a bid will be few in number. And all will be located outside the mid-market. The only teams able to play in the negotiating game will be East Coast powerhouses New York, Boston, and Philadelphia. There might be some calls placed from the west – but he already has a home in Florida.

With a career batting average humming around .330; and a yearly increase to the power categories; his bat would be an upgrade for any line up. The line up most likely to make this investment will be Steinbrenner Inc.

Since 2000 the Yankees have consistently made the investment (splurge may be the more appropriate descriptor) for high profile players. Johnny Damon, Jason Giambi, A-Rod and CC Sabathia are only a few in the mental foot note. But, with this increased spending pattern, the team failed to achieve the pinnacle in the sport. Year after year, Yankee Stadium better resembled a modern day dust bowl than the house that Ruth built. And Monument Park had gained more layers of dust as opposed to confetti.

While the Twins take pride in growing farm talent to a market ready product; the Yankees like to forgo the development process and purchase proven entities. This is why Joe Mauer will likely end up in pin stripes.

Mid-market teams across all professional sports are facing increasing pressure to retain high profile players. The Mauer situation is complicated by the fact that he is a home grown commodity. But even the best grown product is intended to make it to the free market to let capitalism emerge the victor.

Front offices cannot invest a significant amount of capital in one asset and expect to good return come playoff time. And the teams that try find themselves usually on the off ramp come season's end. The Milwaukee Brewers acquired CC Sabathia last year to overcome a 26 year playoff drought. They pitched CC on 3 days rest for almost a month down the stretch and won the equivalent of the World Series for a mid market team; a playoff birth. But, when the season came to an end and the mid-market team could only offer a contract worth $100 million, Steinbrenner Inc. stepped in with a suitcase worth $161 million.

The twins have already seen high profile players move on to greener pastures. David Ortiz, Johan Santana and Torii Hun made the move to Boston, New York, and California respectively.

So, for a home town superstar with 3 Batting titles and a 2009 MVP award, a lot more then financial investment is at stake. Was the home town connection be enough incentive to stay? Are the perennial first round playoff appearances sufficient for a Hall of Fame career?

Or, should the Midwest 'nice' prevail? And should the fan base collectively congratulate Joe on his move to New York; wishing the money and the opportunity provide him with a chance at Baseball immortality…